Corruption Convictions Fuel Populism in Less Democratic Countries
The conviction of former leaders for corruption can have surprising political consequences. In less democratic countries, it can fuel populism and boost the popularity of those in power. This is according to a study by Manoel Gehrke and Feng Yang.
Gehrke and Yang found that when institutional checks are weak, and other actors are constrained, personalistic appeals flourish. These appeals allow leaders to cast themselves as the antidote to a 'broken' system, reaching beyond core supporters.
In less democratic contexts, governments can amplify these appeals and boost their popularity after such convictions. For instance, in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele gained power after the conviction of former presidents. His strong stance on crime reduction, anti-corruption measures, and assertive governance style have contributed to his rising popularity. Similarly, in the Philippines, the conviction of former President Joseph Estrada helped successors like Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Duterte by fueling public anger and branding them as clean-break alternatives.
The study suggests that the popularity gains from corruption convictions are not due to deeper anti-corruption institutional reforms or survey artifacts in more authoritarian contexts. Instead, leaders use these convictions to delegitimize rivals, portray themselves as anti-corruption champions, and appeal to voters. This highlights the complex interplay between corruption, populism, and political power in less democratic societies.
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